the future ain't what it used to be

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Today’s read time: 4 mins

Hey! I’ve been a bit MIA as I focus on writing two (much) longer pieces. I’m excited to release those into the world!

Anyways, for now, I want to briefly talk about the future.

Playing on repeat in my mind is a scene from a WWII documentary on Netflix. The scene is a bunch of young Polish children gleefully playing outside in the late 1930’s.

I find it fascinating to think about what life was like for people at different periods of history. In this case, what hit hardest was thinking about how quickly and severely life as they know it changed for those children. None of them could have had any idea the level of destruction and violence peeking around the corner.

More than anything, it’s sad and terrifying and a reminder of the (senseless) devastation of war.

Zoomed out, though, it reminds me that, we too, have no idea what’s in store.

All we have is the immediate present moment as well as the way we make sense of our past. We use our past experience to try to predict our future experience. We then cling to this projection - likely because it provides a (false) sense of security or certainty - but it’s often wrong.

“The turkey problem” from Nasim Taleb’s book, The Black Swan, provides a nice example. Below is a chart of a Turkey before and after Thanksgiving.

The turkey is fed every day for 3 years and so it continues to build up the idea and conclusion that “these humans take great care of me!”. And then, just before Thanksgiving one year, humans kill the turkey.

The point is: those 1,000 days ultimately told the turkey nothing about what was in store for its 1,001st day.

While you may interpret these examples in a negative light, I see 3 important and arguably positive implications when thinking about the world through this lens:

1/ You don’t need to be shackled to your past

The world tends to pigeon-hole people based on their past. Our future, though, need not resemble our past. It really is never too late to radically shift beliefs or transform a career, for example.

How freeing!

2/ One event can transform your life

An exciting - and yet, as we saw above, scary - proposition.

That said, it’s a reminder that certain events have outsized impact, sort of like the 80/20 rule but more like 99/1, really.

Couples happily married for 40 years, for example, would likely point to the moment they met as a main transformative (and happen-stance) event.

The situations and events that could change your life rarely appear that way in the moment and so the task is to pay close attention and be on the lookout for them.

Even for the so-called “scary” events, just remember: you have the tools to handle whatever comes your way. Underlying all fears is a lack of trust in ourselves. After all, what happened to all the things you were afraid of in the past?

3/ These are the good old days

Our minds are guilty of constantly looking to the future and desiring what we don’t have. As such, perhaps the most valuable aspect of this lens is to recognize and appreciate the immense blessings you currently have. Every blessing you have is, after all, ultimately impermanent.

With deep appreciation,
Phil

Bite-sized asks:

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